The tanker market is enjoying exceptional earnings. The ships being ordered with those earnings will not arrive until 2028 and 2029. That gap is the tanker paradox: the conditions that make owners want more tonnage are not the conditions in which it will be delivered.
In the first half of 2026, MSI figures reported by Seatrade show 54.5m dwt of VLCCs ordered, more than in any previous full year. The orderbook-to-fleet ratio reached roughly 35%, up from 2% in 2023, and about 83% of those H1 orders are slated for delivery in 2028 and 2029. Splash247, citing Hartland, reports more than 100 new VLCCs scheduled to enter service in each of those two years.
Anyone who has worked through a tanker cycle will recognise the pattern. As a former Chief Engineer and fleet manager, I do not say that to predict a crash. I say it because the decisions made in a strong market shape what the fleet looks like when the market turns.
What happened in 1974
The comparison people reach for is the 1970s. BIMCO’s historical figures, quoted by Splash247, put the all-time record at 116 VLCCs delivered in 1974. A wave of tankers ordered during the early 1970s boom arrived just as the 1973 oil shock hit demand.
According to UNCTAD figures reported in the same article, global oil trade fell by 23% between 1974 and 1975 while tanker capacity grew by nearly 16%. Freight rates collapsed. The reopening of the Suez Canal in 1975 shortened voyages further. By the end of the year, INTERTANKO counted 573 tankers, 47.8m dwt, laid up. Some newbuildings went straight into lay-up.
What is different now
I would be careful about presenting today as a repeat of 1974. In 1974 a sudden collapse in demand met a fleet that had been built for growth. Today’s boom comes from disruption and tight vessel availability, and it is not obvious that demand will fall in the same way.
There is also a fair argument for fleet renewal. Hartland notes that 47% of VLCCs are at least 15 years old, and Jefferies is quoted as seeing most newbuilds as replacements. If that is right, new deliveries may simply replace ageing ships.
That argument depends on old tonnage leaving the market, and the evidence so far is mixed. Splash247 reports, citing Banchero Costa, only four VLCC demolitions in the first nine months of 2026 against 172 new orders, and Clarksons valuing a 15-year-old VLCC above the price of a newbuilding. Seaborne crude loadings, the same article says, fell 6% year on year over January to September, and Braemar warns that very high freight is encouraging refiners to buy shorter-haul crude.
Trade patterns, financing, regulation and the make-up of the fleet all differ from the 1970s, and each needs its own assessment. Hartland’s own summary is that this could be an upcoming supply disaster or merely some much needed fleet replacement. Nobody knows yet, and that uncertainty is the point.
What a fleet manager can do in a strong market
Whether or not the market turns, a strong period is the time to build resilience, and most of it is ordinary fleet management.
Use the opportunity to deal with maintenance backlogs that were carried through lean years. Secure critical spares while lead times are manageable. Invest in the people who will run the ships, and plan future dockings so that they do not land at the worst possible moment.
Above all, keep commercial pressure from weakening maintenance discipline. High earnings create a strong incentive to keep ships trading, and the temptation is to defer anything that would take a vessel off hire. A good market makes that decision look cheaper than it is.
Decisions on ordering and fleet expansion are a different matter. They need their own commercial assessment, with realistic assumptions about what the market could look like when the ships are delivered.
A paradox worth remembering
Strong earnings are an opportunity, but they are not a forecast. The ships will arrive in a market that nobody can see today, and the best preparation for that market is a fleet that is well maintained, well manned and not over-committed.
Figures in this article are taken from the Seatrade and Splash247 reports linked above, which in turn cite MSI, Hartland, BIMCO, UNCTAD, INTERTANKO, Banchero Costa, Clarksons and Braemar, and are current as of late October 2026.
Disclosure: the author is a Partner at VragaMarine, a maritime safety consultancy, and Vice President, Partnerships and Growth at FrontM, a maritime technology company. This article is general commentary from the author’s experience, is not about any product or company, and is not investment, commercial or professional advice.
Ankush Khanna is a former Chief Engineer and fleet manager based in Singapore. He spent 17 years at sea, including four as Chief Engineer, followed by shore roles in ship management. His work today focuses on maritime technology, crew welfare and industry collaboration.
Views expressed are the author's own and do not represent those of their employer.
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